2011 Fantasy FB Rankings: Top 5 Overall Picks

1. Arian Foster (RB-HOU):​​​​​​​​​​ Aside from the fact that he has a moron making his decisions in Gary Kubiak, there is NOTHING to dislike about this kid, on opening Day of the 2010 season he rushed 33 times for 231 yards and 3 touchdowns against the Indianapolis Colts. On October 3rd, after being benched in the first quarter (here’s your Gary Kubiak problem, the only reason you might consider not taking him first overall), Foster recorded the longest run in Texans franchise history when he scored on a 74 yard TD in the 3rd quarter, The Texans went on to win behind Fosters 187 from scrimmage. He finished the season with 1,616 Rushing yards, 604 Receiving yards, and a total of 18 TD’s. In my opinion, barring a disaster orchestrated by Kubiak which isn’t that unlikely, Foster is the clear choice for the #1 overall pick, whether in re-draft or dynasty/keeper leagues it makes no difference, this 24 year old All-Pro is primed for another record shattering year.

2. Chris Johnson (RB-TEN):​​​​​​​​              I don’t think anyone has to explain why Chris Johnson is considered one of the best Running Backs in football, but for those that are skeptical or just ignorant on the subject here’s the breakdown: In just 3 seasons this young half back has 4,598 rushing yards (this is not counting his many receiving yards) and 34 rushing TD’s (again not counting his many receiving TD’s) but aside from that those who watch Titans football know one thing, their ENTIRE offense is run around this kid, whether it be him slamming it up the middle or running a sweep to the outside, or getting him into the open field or a reception their looking to get him the ball at every moment. You don’t have to worry about a timeshare with him, you don’t have to worry about him being benched, and you certainly don’t have to worry about them not using him because if He’s not scoring, then Tennessee isn’t winning. If he’s available with your second pick in ANY format, breathe easy with this pick, it’s a no-brainer.

3. Adrian Peterson (RB-MIN): ​​​​​​​​       Why is Peterson still ranked this high after a couple season of performing outside of the top 5 RB’s in fantasy you ask? There is only one answer, one simple reason that brings joy back to Minnesota fans, Green Bay Fans and my hearts… THE BRETT FAVRE EXPERIMENT IS OVER! What does this  mean for Peterson, the offense is going to go back to the way it should have always remained, a run first give the ball to AD at all costs offense, you don’t have to worry about Gerhardt stealing many carries, you don’t have to worry about locker room drama being a distraction, he’s not planning on sending pictures of himself to reporters, and no matter who ends up at QB in the Purple & Gold we know it’s going to be somebody brought in to just manage and keep the top off the defense. With Childress gone we know the goal isn’t going to be 4-5 passing TD’s or 300 passing yards, but it’s going to be RUN, RUN, And RUN. The only downfall for Adrian Peterson is the fact that he’s going to get 350+ carries this year, which suggest he’ll be prone to injury. He is going to have a breakout year.

4. Michael Turner (RB-ATL):​​​​​​​​          It’s ok to pick your jaw up off the ground now, yes I said 29 year old 5 foot 10 244 pound Michael Turner. I’m not crazy; this guy is set to have another record breaking year for fantasy owners everywhere, With Matty ice being another year older and Roddy White having Julio Jones to help spread the field this is going to open up huge running lanes for Turner. You may have been underwhelmed by his 1,371 yds and 12 TD’s last year but with a long rest of an off season and a passing game that is going to make secondary’s sweat every week I see Turner being primed for another 370+ attempt season, and he might just exceed his personal best of 1,699 with 17 TD’s he awed us with in 2008. If you’re drafting for a dynasty league you might consider a younger player like Jamaal Charles. However, if you’re looking for #1 pick potential outside of the top 3, no other Running Back provides you with this much upside.

5. Ray Rice (RB-BAL): ​​​​​​​​​         This selection doesn’t need a lot of defending, Rice is a dynamic half back that poses not only a rushing threat but is one of the best receiving options at the running back position in the NFL. If you’re in a total yards bonus league then Rice could get you a Receiving AND a Rushing bonus any given week. With Flacco having another year of experience under his belt, and an imminent change in the receiving corps, and with Willis McGahee being another year older it looks as if Rice is going to have PLENTY of work this season. He is a dynamic option in both Re-Draft, Keeper/Dynasty, and PPR formats. If you’re not at the top of the draft order then take Rice and look to grab another good RB with upside in the second round to add depth at the most valuable position in Fantasy Football.

Photo Courtesy of The Brit_2 http://www.flickr.com/photos/26686573@N00/

8 Comments

1. 

   Brett "the hitman" Fart

   May 14, 2011 at 8:45 PM

   Ray Rice loses all the goal line carries. Last year was a huge disappointment. How about the guy who should be number four, MJD. Then at number 5 you HAVE to put Aaron Rodgers up there. Qb’s and Rbs win you leagues. After Turner, who I would rank number 6, you arent getting a sure thing at all. What was your reasoning for leaving MJD out and including Ray Rice and Michael Turner?

   Reply
2. 

   The Bard

   May 14, 2011 at 9:42 PM

   Well if you’d like an in depth answer I’d be glad to oblige. But in short, A-Rod didn’t get top 5 because he’s a top QB, mark my words Peyton will prove to be a more reliable 2012 option (however A-Rod would be top 3 in a dynasty projection). And Ray Rice has NOONE to lose his goal line carries to, there’s not a better option on his team, regardless he’s more of a threat to score within the 20′s than he is the red zone. If MJD didn’t have serious concerns because of his knee he’d also rank higher… Knee problems for an RB without someone to share the load or without a QB to take the pressure off him? DANGER! Injuries are hard to nurse when there are 8-9 in the box against him!

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3. 

   The Bard

   May 14, 2011 at 9:44 PM

   To further my A-Rod answer, it’s not that I am prejudiced against QB’s but tier 1-2 RB’s are much harder to come by, it’s much easier to find a QB1 in free agency/trade than it is an RB1.

   Reply
4. 

   Brett "the hitman" Fart

   May 15, 2011 at 10:08 PM

   How many TD’s did Ray Rice have rushing last year? How many did Willis Mcgahee have? MJD is far and away better from a fantasy standpoint than Ray Rice. For the simple fact that MJD doesnt have anybody to lose his goalline carries to. While Ray Rice doesnt even get the goalline carries.

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5. 

   The Bard

   May 16, 2011 at 8:56 AM

   I will commend you on your knowledge of MJD not losing his goal line carries, however I don’t believe that was a concern on anyone’s mind. The reason behind MJD sliding down everyones projections for 2012 has nothing to with concerns about him losing goal line carries and everything to do with him losing ALL his carries due to his knee injury, and until the lockout ends, Camps are over, and the season actually begins I doubt we’ll be able to tell what the actual status is. With the worry that current contracts of NFL players will not be honored in the new CBA no players with injuries are allowing any details to leak out about them on order to strengthen their case for a new contract if necessary. So without knowing the truth about MJD you’d be playing Russian roullete using a top 5 pick on him.

   To dispel further woes about rice I encourage you to look at the year to year stats on players who have breakout years like Rice did season before last. They tend to have a hangover year and then rebound for a strong season following (ala Falcons RB Michael Turner). While McGahee was given alot of goal line carries, Harbaugh have made it quite clear that Rice is there man, I don’t think you’ll have to worry about him continuing to lose goal line carries to an aging back, and like I said in the article above, Rice is a bigger threat to score between the 20′s anyhow. He’s more than just a rushing threat , and more than just a goal line back, This dynamic athlete could break for an 80 yard TD at any moment, be it rushing through an unfilled hole or recording the ball in the open field. He’s on of the few RB’s in the NFL that coils rush for 100 yards AND receive for 100 USA in the same game on a regular basis. You may not agree but I believe this young kid hasn’t had his best season yet.

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6. 

   The Bard

   May 16, 2011 at 9:07 AM

   I apologize for spelling/grammar errors, it’s hard to make sure everything is correct from an iPhone.

   Reply
7. 

   thepurplepeopleeater

   June 15, 2011 at 7:29 PM

   Anyone else think that Sam Bradford is going to have a great year? Theres just something about the kid that screams superstar or maybe its just the homer in me….

   Bard, what do u think his fantasy value is? Just curious…

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8. 

   theBard

   June 20, 2011 at 6:42 PM

   He’s only going to get better after this point! The kid will has all the potential necessary to be a hall of famer, we’ll see how he uses that talent though.

   What is his value? hes priceless to any NFL team, however his fantasy value to put it in perspective? heres my QB ranking so far.
   Tiers:
   1. Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Drew Brees
   2. Aaron Rodgers
   3. Vick, Rivers
   4.Bradford, Romo, Schaub, Matt Ryan

   Reply